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Italian study suggesting COVID predates China outbreak sparks scepticism

发布者: admin | 发布时间: 2020-11-18 09:27| 查看数: 26| 评论数: 1|帖子模式

https://www.yahoo.com/news/italian-study-suggesting-covid-predates-123134893.html

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FILE PHOTO: People wearing masks walk on a street, as the number of people infected by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to rise, in Venice
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[size=1.385em]Giselda Vagnoni and Emilio ParodiWed, November 18, 2020, 7:31 AM EST






[size=1.385em]By Giselda Vagnoni and Emilio Parodi
[size=1.385em]ROME (Reuters) - An Italian study supporting the case that the novel coronavirus was circulating outside China earlier than thought has sparked doubts among some Western scientists who called for further tests.
[size=1.385em]A paper published by the Italian Cancer Institute (INT) describes the presence of neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in blood taken from healthy patients in Italy in October last year during a lung cancer screening trial.
[size=1.385em]If the data are correct, they would change the history of the pandemic and raise questions of when and where the virus emerged. It was first identified in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December.
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[size=1.385em]But several scientists interviewed by Reuters said further examination was needed.
[size=1.385em]"These results are worth reporting, but mostly should be taken as something to follow up with further testing," said Mark Pagel, professor at the School of Biological Sciences at Britain's University of Reading.
[size=1.385em]"All of the patients in the study were asymptomatic despite most being 55-65 years old and having been smokers. This would normally be a high-risk group for COVID-19, so it is puzzling why all patients were asymptomatic."
[size=1.385em]A co-author of the study said he and his colleagues were planning further investigations and called for scientists worldwide to contribute.
[size=1.385em]The World Health Organization has said the new coronavirus and COVID-19, the respiratory disease it causes, were unknown before the Wuhan outbreak was reported. But it has said the possibility that the virus may have "silently circulated elsewhere" cannot be ruled out.
[size=1.385em]There have been at least 55,573,000 reported infections and 1,336,000 reported deaths caused by COVID-19 globally since the virus was first detected in China.
[size=1.385em]'UNEXPECTED DETECTION'
[size=1.385em]China believes the Italian study shows that tracing the origin of the virus is an ongoing process that may involve many countries.
[size=1.385em]"China will continue working with the rest of the international community to contribute to the global cooperation on fighting COVID-19 and other viruses,", Zhao Lijian, spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday.
[size=1.385em]Italy's first COVID-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a small town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy. But the Italian researchers' findings show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in the cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had signs of having already encountered the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, most of them well before February.
[size=1.385em]A further SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was carried out by the University of Siena for the same research paper, called "Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the pre-pandemic period in Italy".
[size=1.385em]It showed that in six cases, the antibodies were able to kill SARS-CoV-2. Four of the cases dated back to October 2019, meaning the patients had become infected in September.
[size=1.385em]"This number (six) is fully compatible with test errors and statistical noise. For these reasons, it seems to me that the evidence brought to support such an extraordinary claim is not solid enough," said Enrico Bucci, biologist adjunct professor at Philadelphia's Temple University.
[size=1.385em]"Much ado about nothing," Antonella Viola, professor of general pathology at the University of Padua, told Reuters.
[size=1.385em]'SERIOUS ISSUE INDEED'
[size=1.385em]Both Italian scientists said the antibody test was in-house designed and never validated by other researchers in a peer review.
[size=1.385em]What was also noticeable was the very high seroprevalence in the research study's population, they said, referring to the percentage of people who may have been exposed to the virus.
[size=1.385em]"For there to be an epidemic (albeit apparently asymptomatic) on this scale in Italy a full year before the current pandemic that went unnoticed would be a serious issue indeed," said Stephen Griffin, associate professor at the University of Leeds.
[size=1.385em]Most of the scientists' scepticism focuses on the so called specificity of the antibody tests, that, if not perfect, might reveal the presence of antibodies to other diseases.
[size=1.385em]"Other recent reports have shown that seasonal coronaviruses can elicit cross-neutralizing antibodies," said Jonathan Stoye, group leader at the Francis Crick Institute.
[size=1.385em]"I think we need a really conclusive demonstration that those samples are picking up the COVID-19 virus and that those antibodies were not actually triggered by another virus," Andrew Preston, reader in microbial pathogenesis at the University of Bath, told Reuters.
[size=1.385em]Preston said he was surprised that those requirements weren't needed for the publication of a research paper.
[size=1.385em]"But it is perfectly feasible to go away and do those extra tests and come back and show that," he added.
[size=1.385em]The INT's scientific director and co-author of the study is planning further investigation into the study patients' clinical history.
[size=1.385em]"We need to understand if they had symptoms of illness. Where they had gone, if they had contact with China," Giovanni Apolone told Reuters, calling for colleagues globally to "open their databases and conduct retrospective researches".
[size=1.385em](Reporting by Emilio Parodi, Josephine Mason and Giselda Vagnoni. Additional reporting by Roxanne Liu in Beijing. Writing by Giselda Vagnoni; Editing by Nick Macfie)





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点评 回复 admin 发表于 6 天前
意大利去年9月新冠已流行,证人出现 zt
送交者:  2020年11月18日12:34:05 于 [世界军事论坛] 发送悄悄话
意大利去年9月新冠已流行,证人出现
2020年11月17日 21:02 长安街知事


  原标题:意大利去年9月新冠已流行,证人出现

  据媒体报道,意大利更加猛烈的第二波疫情已经来临,全国实行三级限制制度。意大利米兰国家肿瘤研究所近日发表的一项研究结果显示,新冠病毒可能在2019年9月就已经开始在意大利传播了。

  15日,意大利米兰国家癌症研究所通报新冠病毒官方研究报告《意大利新冠肺炎大流行前,意外检测出新冠病毒抗体》。报告显示,在2019年10月初采集的意大利居民血液样本中,已成功发现、分离了新冠病毒抗体,研究人员就此推定,2019年9月新冠病毒已经开始在意大利传播,远早于武汉出现疫情的时间。  

  16日,英国一名67岁的瓦工布莱恩·斯特劳蒂(Brian Stoodley)听到这个消息后,自曝自己曾于去年9月在意大利旅游归来后发现感染新冠病毒。据英国《太阳报》和《每日邮报》报道,布莱恩·斯特劳蒂去年9月曾因“神秘病症”而住院,他认为自己是英国第一例新冠病毒感染者。

《每日邮报》报道截图《每日邮报》报道截图
  英媒称,布莱恩·斯特劳蒂自称14个月前他就出现了呼吸急促、高热不退和严重咳嗽的症状,他在医院卧床不起,“几乎死于” 这场病毒感染。

布莱恩·斯特劳蒂生活照。图源:《太阳报》布莱恩·斯特劳蒂生活照。图源:《太阳报》
  “几个月来我一直在向朋友和家人说我怀疑自己感染了新冠病毒。”布莱恩·斯特劳蒂说,但他的亲朋好友都不相信他的说法,并坚信病毒是从2019年12月才出现在中国的。“但是现在有报道说,去年九月意大利出现了新冠病毒,这证明了我的看法是正确的。”

  布莱恩·斯特劳蒂的大女儿艾玛今年44岁,她在父亲感染后也出现了相似病症。艾玛表示,“我确定自己感染了新冠病毒,这种病毒肯定不是那年12月首次才起源于中国的。”

  此前,现年53岁的伦敦艺术总监苏珊娜·福特(Susannah Ford)被认为是英国的零号病人。苏珊娜·福特称,自己是在1月初前往距离意大利边境不到8英里的奥伯古格尔度假村(Obergurgl resort)感染新冠病毒的。现在斯特劳蒂又将时间线向前推了3个月。

  今年3月,马里奥·内格里(Mario Negri)药理研究所的主任,意大利专家朱塞佩·雷穆齐(Giuseppe Remuzzi)接受美国全国公共广播电台(NPR)采访时表示,“有医生在去年12月甚至11月,便已见到一种奇怪的肺炎,很严重,特别对于老年人来说。这意味着在中国出现疫情之前,病毒有可能就已经在意大利隆巴迪北部地区出现流行了。”

  今年6月,西班牙《世界报》也有报道称,西班牙巴塞罗那大学肠道病毒小组的研究人员发现,2019年3月12日采集的废水中已有新冠病毒的踪迹,这说明,至少在2019年3月,新冠病毒就已经在西班牙开始传播。

西班牙《世界报》报道截图西班牙《世界报》报道截图
  美国《华盛顿邮报》文章认为,目前对新冠病毒的起源地说法众多且难以下定论,新冠病毒的详细进化史,病毒原始寄生者,以及首次从动物感染人类的传播机制等都需进一步全面调查。世界需要一个可信的、公正的调查来更好地为未来疫情做准备。

  在欧洲多国疫情反弹的背景下,英国和意大利的情形都不容乐观。英国是继美国、印度、巴西、俄罗斯、法国、西班牙、阿根廷和哥伦比亚之后,第9个新冠肺炎感染病例破百万的国家。据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学的疫情实时数据显示,截至11月17日下午4时25分,英国新冠病毒确诊病例数为1394299例,死亡病例数为52240例。英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊由于近日与新冠患者有过接触,已经再度开展自主隔离。

  目前,意大利新冠病毒确诊病例数为1205881例,死亡病例数为45733例。意大利卫生部15日发布的新冠疫情数据显示,该国24小时新增确诊病例33979例。

  11月17日,外交部发言人赵立坚主持例行记者会。

  有记者提问:意大利米兰国家癌症研究所一项最新研究显示,新冠病毒去年9月就开始在意大利传播,有观点认为,新冠疫情在武汉暴发前,就已经在海外传播,中方对此有何评论?

赵立坚 资料图赵立坚 资料图
  赵立坚表示,我们已经看到、听到国际上不断出现关于新冠肺炎疫情暴发时间、地点等报道,这再次印证了病毒溯源是一个复杂的科学问题,应该由科学家在全球范围开展国际科学研究与合作,促进对病毒动物宿主和传播途径的了解,目的是更好地预防未来可能出现的风险,保护各国人民的生命安全和健康。

  赵立坚指出,病毒溯源是一个持续发展的过程,可能涉及多国多地,我们希望各国都采取积极态度,同世卫组织加强合作,推进全球溯源工作,中方将继续积极参与病毒溯源和传播途径全球科学研究,同国际社会一道,为全球病毒和抗疫合作作出贡献。
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