中国如何在没有霍尔木兹海峡的情况下生存

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CRUDE OIL IMPORTED VIA THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

China

5.4 million barrels per day

in the first quarter of 2025

South Korea

1.7 mb/d

Japan

1.6 mb/d

Rest of Asia

2.0 mb/d

Europe

0.5

U.S.

0.4

India

2.1 mb/d

Rest of the

world

0.6 mb/d

How China can survive without the Strait of Hormuz
[color=rgb(119, 119, 119) !important]By [color=rgb(119, 119, 119) !important]Sumanta Sen, [color=rgb(119, 119, 119) !important]Pasit Kongkunakornkul, [color=rgb(119, 119, 119) !important]Sam Li, [color=rgb(119, 119, 119) !important]Lewis Jackson and [color=rgb(119, 119, 119) !important]Colleen Howe
[color=rgb(119, 119, 119) !important]Published March 31, 2026  06:00 PM EDT

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The world’s largest importer of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is, paradoxically, also one of the best placed to weather the waterway’s closure.

China consumes oceans of oil from the Gulf and imports roughly as much from the region as India, Japan and South Korea combined. In response to the closure of the Strait, officials across Asia are asking citizens to take shorter showers or work from home to save energy. In China, the ruling Communist Party’s flagship newspaper is instead telling readers the country holds its own “energy rice bowl.”

While the editorial does not mention that Beijing has unofficially banned fuel exports to conserve supplies, the country is nonetheless more insulated than many of its neighbours thanks to years of policy measures that have reduced its vulnerability to energy shocks.

China boasts an electric vehicle fleet about as large as the rest of the world’s combined, vast and growing oil stockpiles, diversified supplies of oil, and gas and an electricity grid that is almost insulated from imports thanks to domestic coal and renewables.

“The current situation is really close to what Chinese planners have had in mind for decades,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Finland.

“It validates the drive to reduce reliance on seaborne fossil fuels.”

The unexpected EV boom

In late 2020, Beijing issued a goal for electric vehicle purchases to hit 20% of new sales in 2025. By last year, sales hit half of all new vehicles.

That unexpected boom in EVs means China’s fuel consumption has topped out after decades of breakneck growth. The country is burning and importing less oil than it was expected to just a few years ago.

Oil displaced by EVs last year was roughly equal to what China imported from Saudi Arabia, according to estimates from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

[size=18.864px]The EV boom means China imports much less oil

[size=18.864px]Annual oil consumption displaced by electric vehicles in China

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[size=18.864px]Chart showing the annual oil consumption displaced by electric vehicles in China annually from two different sources. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air show nearly 80 million tons of oil was displaced in 2025 while the International Energy Agency estimated less than 40 million tons were displaced in 2024.

Note: The IEA has not released an estimate for 2025

Source: International Energy Agency; Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

[size=18.864px]An insulated electricity grid

China’s electricity grid is powered almost entirely by coal and rapidly growing renewable energy. The boom in clean energy, which has exceeded Beijing’s own targets, is such that almost all the extra power the economy requires each year is met with new solar or wind. That means fewer coal imports and less liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported into the handful of coastal provinces where it is part of the electricity mix.

[size=18.864px]China’s grid is mostly powered by coal and, increasingly, renewables

[size=18.864px]Share of electricity production in China by source

80%

70

60

Coal

50

China’s 12th five year plan (2011-2015) put the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions at the top of its agenda

40

Renewables

30

20

10

Nuclear

Gas

0

Oil

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

[size=18.864px]Chart showing the electricity production mix in China from the 80s until today. In the last roughly 15 years, China is using less coal and more renewables, though coal is still by far the biggest source of electricity.

Note: Includes transportation, electricity, industry and all the other uses to which energy is put. Renewables include hydropower, solar, wind, biofuels, biomass, and waste energy.

Source: Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy (2025) with processing by Our World in Data

[size=18.864px]Lots of oil, but many suppliers

China imports lots of oil, but in contrast to other major Asian importers, it is careful to stay independent of any one supplier.

Take Japan: Tokyo normally buys nearly 80% of its oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. China bought the same share of oil from eight countries, including large amounts of discounted oil from Russia, Venezuela and Iran, which U.S. sanctions place off limits for most buyers.

[size=18.864px]China keeps its oil imports diversified

[size=18.864px]Crude oil import volumes by origin for major importers. Less than 20% of China’s oil imports are from any one source.

20%

40

60

80

100

China

Russia

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

Malaysia

Oman

UAE

India

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Russia

South Korea

U.S.

UAE

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

Japan

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

[size=18.864px]Chart showing the share of crude oil imports over the last five years for China, India, South Korea and Japan by origin. China’s two largest sources of imported oil are Russia and Saudi Arabia, but neither contribute more than 20%. All the other countries’ two largest sources make up more than 40% of their oil imports.

Note: Most of the oil labelled Malaysian is rebranded Iranian oil. The United States is not shown because it is a net exporter of oil. Data for India is from 2021 to 2024, other countries also include 2025.

Source: International Trade Centre’s calculation based on UN COMTRADE, General Customs Administration of China, India’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics, Korea Customs and Trade Development Institute, and Japanese Ministry of Finance statistics

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China also funnels a share of those imports into the storage tanks of its secretive strategic petroleum reserve. No one knows exactly how big the reserves are, but combined with stocks held by commercial refiners, China has enough oil in storage to replace imports via the Strait of Hormuz for perhaps seven months by some estimates.

[size=18.864px]China has enough oil stored to cover seven months of imports via Hormuz

500 million barrels

1,000

1,500

Estimated imports via the

Strait of Hormuz in a year

Stockpiles

[size=18.864px]A bar chart showing the quantity of crude oil China imported via the Strait of Hormuz and the quantity in its stockpiles. Its oil stockpiles are nearly 70% of its imports via the Strait of Hormuz

Note: Stockpiles are an average estimate of onshore stocks from Kpler, Energy Aspects, and Vortexa. That includes both government and commercial storage.

Source: China customs; Vortexa, Kpler, and Energy Aspects estimates; International Energy Agency

[size=18.864px]Domestic production is growing

China produced 4.3 million barrels per day of oil last year, a new record that was equal to about 40% of all oil imports. However, oil reserves are drying up and China is unlikely to replicate the U.S. shale oil boom.

Gas, however, is another story. Domestic production is growing fast enough that, combined with gas imported via pipeline, China is actually importing less LNG than it did in 2020.

[size=18.864px]China’s gas production has kept pace with rising consumption

[size=18.864px]Sources of natural gas, relative to consumption, since 2015

LNG imported via shipping

Pipeline gas import

Domestic gas production

350 million tons

Total gas

consumption

300

250

200

150

LNG imports

have flatlined

100

Power of Siberia pipeline from Russia began pumping gas in 2019

50

0

2015

2020

2025

2015

2020

2025

2015

2020

2025

[size=18.864px]Charts showing the volume of liquefied natural gas from three different sources annually since 2015. Since roughly 2020, shipped imports have not increased, while gas deliveries by pipeline and domestic production have increased.

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, China; China customs; Rystad Energy

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China’s pipeline network allows it to diversify away from seaborne imports and source oil and gas from Russia, central Asia and Myanmar. Ambitious plans have been proposed for another Russian-China pipeline, the Power of Siberia 2, however it remains years from completion.

[size=18.864px]China’s pipeline gas imports have steadily risen since the Power of Siberia

[size=18.864px]Island neighbors such as Japan or Korea do not share the same geographic advantage

Operating pipelines

Pipelines under construction

Proposed pipelines

Kara Sea

Yamal

Power of Siberia 2

Gas Pipeline*

Black Sea

Power of Siberia

Gas Pipeline

Russia

Sea of

Okhotsk

Caspian Sea

Kazakhstan

Kovykta

Blagoveshchensk

Uzbekistan

China-Russia Far East

Gas Pipeline

Hulin

Central Asia-China

Gas Pipeline

Turkmenistan

Changchun

Mongolia

Horgos

Sea of Japan

(East Sea)

Saman-Depe

The Gulf

Shijiazhuang

Yellow

Sea

Strait of Hormuz

Gulf of Oman

China

(MAINLAND)

Shanghai

East China Sea

Sino-Myanmar

Gas Pipeline

Philippine Sea

Guigang

Myanmar

Arabian Sea

Rakhine

Bay of Bengal

South

China Sea

[size=18.864px]Map showing current, under construction and proposed pipelines supplying China.

Note: The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline has yet to be agreed upon, and its route is subject to change.

Source: Global Energy Monitor project; China National Petroleum Corporation

[size=18.864px]A more secure future

For decades China’s growth has been fueled by fossil fuels imported from overseas, in particular crude oil. But thanks to the EV boom, China is unhitching its growth engine from foreign oil.

“China’s oil demand is likely to peak this year and decline thereafter,” said Chen Lin, vice president of oil and gas research at Rystad Energy. “So although the import share will remain high, the situation is unlikely to worsen.”